Niall Ferguson on Bush, Kerry, & Europe

Earlier today on CNN, Richard Quest asked the prominent historian Niall Ferguson about how future American -- European relations might be influenced by the outcome of this fall's U.S. presidential election. The transcript isn't yet available on CNN's web site, but the exchange, verbatim, was as follows:

CNN's Richard Quest: "Niall Ferguson, the Europe Transatlantic relationship, one year from now, being in thind it's a matter of a U.S. election between now and then -- which could alter the issues. What do you think?"

Niall Ferguson: "There's always more than one plausible future. I'll give you two. In one future, President Kerry succumbs to European pressure to reduce American presence in Iraq prematurely and the country plunges into civil war. An alternative scenario, President Bush hangs in there and the Europeans get real about the Middle East. The American troop levels are maintained, and a year from now Iraq is starting to look like a rapidly recovering economy."

Tough love is usually good for all involved -- in this prediction especially for Iraqis.