OBL's Reel Efforts

Does anyone truly doubt that Osama's video is little more than a crude, evil attempt to aid John Kerry's efforts to defeat President Bush? After all, he's hardly the first international figure to join the anti-Bush chorus. Kofi Annan has called the Iraq war "illegitimate," his UN sidekick Mohamed ElBaradei leaked old news to major liberal media outlets, who were only too happy to cooperate in an attempted October Surprise. Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schroeder, and Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero rarely misses an opportunity to stick his finger in Bush's eye, to the extent that he can.

That's why it's perfectly understandable why OBL would emerge from his cave long enough to wash up and tape a series of threats for the American public. He's only borrowing, as has been pointed out, from Democratic intellectual guru Michael Moore's script. And if you're OBL, finding yourself in the same boat with the above crowd isn't such bad company. It gives you a sense of legitimacy, which every outlaw craves in some way. By going on the attack against Bush, he's made it clear that the left's criticism of the President is correct -- to appeasement-minded lefties and those whom they would appease.

It certainly didn't take John Kerry long to seize the opportunity to make OBL's tape sound as if it were cut for his (Kerry's) benefit. (Via Power Line, this is in keeping with the Democrat's mad efforts to win at any costs, as Joseph Perkins pointed out here. Nothing is beyond partisanship for such people; no step is ever over the line.)

Few others doubt that OBL's principal target was Bush. According to an AP story, again via Power Line, "Around the world, observers debated what impact the dramatically timed message would have on the U.S. election, just days away."

Radical Muslims certainly took it for granted that Osama's threats shouldn't be seen as politically neutral: "On Web sites devoted to extremist Muslim comment, contributors reacted with glee to the tape, saying it was proof bin Laden was alive and was a 'slap' at America.

"Montasser el-Zayat, a Cairo-based lawyer who defends Islamic radicals, said the video amounted to an 'unprecedented attack on Bush at a very critical time, before the U.S. elections.'"

Legitimate observers felt the same way, according to the same AP story:

"Diaa Rashwan, a Cairo-based expert on extremist Muslim militants, said bin Laden was trying to influence Americans 'to give Kerry their votes, not Bush [emphasis added].'"

"Many felt the tape would have the opposite result. 'Bush supporters are confident the video will be widely seen as an attempt to blackmail the nation into changing course, something that can only play to the advantage of the incumbent,' noted Britain's Daily Telegraph."

It should be noted that any backfire from the Bin Laden video is a sign not of his original intentions, but of his ignorance of America.

Via Beldar Blog, Wretchard at Belmont Club reads OBL's speech in a way that supports the terrorist's hope that Kerry wins. In an insightful bit of analysis her writes:

"It is important to notice what he has stopped saying in this speech. He has stopped talking about the restoration of the Global Caliphate. There is no more mention of the return of Andalusia. There is no more anticipation that Islam will sweep the world. He is no longer boasting that Americans run at the slightest wounds; that they are more cowardly than the Russians. He is not talking about future operations to swathe the world in fire but dwelling on past glories. He is basically saying if you leave us alone we will leave you alone. Though it is couched in his customary orbicular phraseology he is basically asking for time out.

"The American answer to Osama's proposal will be given on Election Day. One response is to agree that the United States of America will henceforth act like Sweden, which is on track to become majority Islamic sometime after the middle of this century. The electorate best knows which candidate will serve this end; which candidate most promises to be European-like in attitude and they can choose that path with both eyes open. The electorate can strike that bargain and Osama may keep his word. The other course is to reject Osama's terms utterly; to recognize the pleading in his outwardly belligerent manner and reply that his fugitive existence; the loss of his sanctuaries; the annihilation of his men are but the merest foretaste of what is yet to come: to say that to enemies such as he, the initials 'US' will always mean Unconditional Surrender.

"Osama has stated his terms. He awaits America's answer."

Beldar reads OBL's tape as "a very clear attempt to begin negotiations with a Kerry administration for a "cease-fire" in the Global War on Terror." Captain Ed, meanwhile, reads it as less a surrender than another attempt at braggadocio, whereby OBL is gambling that a Kerry win would demonstrate his strength by his ability to influence an American election.

"Far from signaling a surrender, I believe that OBL wants to influence the American elections as another demonstration of his power. He wants to depose George Bush, but he's smart enough to understand that a fire-breathing performance only helps Bush by scaring/insulting the voters. His moderate performance was designed to appeal to the reasonable leftists and centrists who tend to believe that America brought Islamist terror onto itself. His "offer" amounts to a lever with which to promote anti-Israel sentiment to undercut support for Bush, as well as give people the impression that the war is Bush's fault, despite the years of Al Qaeda attacks on American assets.

"Don't allow yourselves to be fooled into thinking that Osama has retreated in his desire to reconquer Andalusia and spread the ummah across the globe, reducing the infidels to dhimmitude. He just knows when to temper his rhetoric for the best possible political result."

This is the kind of debate we need over Osama's intentions, and it's one we're getting only on the blogosphere (though, to be sure, talk radio is likely to engage it come Monday). It's another reason New Media are so key to tackling the central issues before us.

My own gut feeling is that the Captain is partially correct by arguing that Osama hasn't given up on any of his grand dreams. As Daniel Pipes and others have argued, a central element of Islamism is the restoration of Muslim greatness at the expense of the West. But I'm not as convinced of his PR savvy as is the Captain and, like Wretchard, I'm struck by the lack of fire and brimstone in this latest salvo. If OBL possessed the judgment and reason of an American politico, he should have foreseen the rage at his actions and the full-throated backing of the disposal of the Taliban that followed 9/11. Besides, our European allies, with whom we share much more culturally and historically than we do with OBL, frequently misunderstand and misinterpret us.

I don't doubt OBL's savvy on many levels -- after all, 9/11 occurred -- but given American estimates that 95% of Al Qaida's ranks have been devastated, he knows that things aren't what they used to be. His element of surprise is gone, and by appearing on TV he has placed the terror machine he runs -- not weapons caches in Iraq -- back at the center of our debate.

Plus, Kerry's politicized reactions sound like they're coming from a man who thinks the OBL video is likely to help Bush. So does Walter Cronkite's attempt at dark humor. If OBL is to be given credit for subtlety and political savvy, those are significant reasons to wonder just how much he understands about the American electorate.