Remember Germany? Remember Afghanistan?

Today’s elections in Germany are important…..aren’t they? If Merkel becomes Chancellor, at best, relations with the United States may be a bit warmer. However, no increase in contributions toward U.S. efforts in Iraq is likely. The integration of Turkey into the EU will not be eased. Little, if any, reduction is likely in the restrictions on competitiveness from the labor laws or the stagnation stemming from the tax burdens and disincentives to risk from the welfare laws. Too many are hooked. About the only bright spot may be the replacement of nettlesome Gerhard Schroeder as Chancellor, but at this point probably only Chirac may care and he will be gone before long as well, and few care any more about either of the Franco-German twits. To keep up with developments, go to David’s Medienkritik. The first exit polls show that Schroeder’s government was voted out of office, with 33% of the vote, but Merkel’s Christian Democrats, at 37% also received less backing than expected. If the exit polls hold, then a stagnant stalemate between contending views of Germany’s future is even more likely to emerge.

Probably of more importance is that the elections in Afghanistan have concluded, pretty peaceably. (Take note, that Germany has played a constructive role in the efforts to stabilize Afghanistan.) Final results of the elections won’t be known for some weeks, as tabulations commence. In any event, the legislators are more concerned with local issues than geopolitical. This is to the good over the longer term, as democratic means of achieving goals takes deeper root in the disparate regions. The key result is already known – Afghanistan continues down the road to more firmly entrenched democracy. The effect will continue on reinforcing the democratic aspirations of those in the other traditionally hidebound satrapies of the Muslim countries.

UPDATE: So, that's why they say about German operas, it's not over until the fat lady sings. The final results seem to be tightening to about one-percent spread between Merkel's Christian Democrats and Schroeder's Social Democrats, according to the latest vote projections at Der Spiegel. Wrinkles in the German electoral system could also affect the final results. Schroeder says only he could be Chancellor. The SPD coalition partner Green's Joschka Fischer, serving as Foreign Minister, rejects any coalition with the CDU. The strengthened Free Democrats, more pro-business than other German parties, but not by American standards, rejects governing with the SPD and Greens. Disappointment with Merkel's showing is evident, although few are talking about the negative impact among traditional Germans of her being female or from the East. Look out for more posturing, and indecisiveness in Germany to meet its crippling problems. See the London Financial Times for analysis.

UPDATE #2: See my "Afghanistan's Karzai best predictor of German election stalemate" in September 19's Democracy-Project.com . -- And, a hearty welcome to all the Instapunditians.