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March 4, 2006

Proof Zogby poll is BS


In entirety is the post at Media Lies blog. I know the blogger, and he is a reliable source. See my post about MSM not validating the methodology of such spurious polls as Zogby's. Going beyond the methodology to its substance, perhaps the correspondents holed up in the "Green Zone" would not be aware of what's happening outside, as they haven't spoken up to debunk Zogby's obvious failings!


Others might be cautious, but I'm not....
....I'm calling the Zogby poll bullshit. Here's why.

Source: Faces From The Front blog:

This line from the Press Release:
"Four in five said they oppose the use of such internationally banned weapons as napalm and white phosphorous."
of Zogby's new poll of military personnel in Iraq struck me as odd.

What is odd about it is that 80% of infantrymen carry white phosphorous grenades on missions.

So, ethier most of resondents are not currently aware of what infantrymen strap to their flak vests when they go outside the wire, or disapprove of their infantry bretheren carrying WP grenades or the question was poorly worded, or some combination.

Media Lies blog continues:
First of all, white phosphorus isn't an internationally banned weapon, and every infantryman, Marine, grunt and ne'er-do-well knows that. Secondly, the troops carry the weapon on them on missions. This poll was rigged and is worthless, plain and simple. I don't need to see any of the other questions to know that.

Obviously Zogby's "pollsters" have never heard "Pop smoke". I question if anyone was polled, or if someone sat down and made up this poll out of thin air. I'm voting for the latter.

Zogby won't reveal the questions, won't reveal the interviewees and won't reveal the pollsters. Now why do you think that is?

UPDATE: Turns out Radio Blogger has gotten a copy of the poll questions and results. The question about white phosphorus bears no relation to the press release quoted above. Here's the question, and the answer.
23. It is legitimate to use white phosophorus or napalm-like inflamants against insurgents?

1. 2 3 4 5 6 Not sure
Legitimate does not equal "Internationally banned". Furthermore, white phosphorus and napalm are not even close to the same thing. The former is used primarily by ground assets, the latter by air assets only. (Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think America has ever used napalm in artillery shells or grenades.) Very few military personnel would be trained in the use of both and understand the legalities of both.

So the question is not only vague and misleading but contains a false premise.

Here's the answers.
Definitely false - 22.6%, Mostly false - 23.8%, Partly True, Partly False - 23.6%, Mostly True - 9.8%, Definitely True - 10.2%, Not Sure - 9.7%.
Now think about this. Napalm and phosphorus are not banned chemical weapons, but many people might believe that napalm is. Unless they're airmen, they might not even know what napalm is, other than a general understanding that it's an incendiary dropped from aircraft and tends to stick to the skin.
These Military Chemicals are Not Considered to be Chemical Weapons

Incendiary agents such as napalm and phosphorus are not considered to be CW agents since they achieve their effect mainly through thermal energy. Certain types of smoke screen may be poisonous in extremely high concentrations but, nonetheless, smoke ammunition is not classed as a chemical weapon since the poisonous effect is not the reason for their use. Plants, microorganisms, algae, etc. which produce toxins are not classed as chemical weapons even if the produced toxins belong to that class. Pathogenic microorganisms, mainly viruses and bacteria, are classed as biological weapons.
If the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, which is tasked with enforcement of the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1993, says that napalm and white phosphorus are not chemical weapons, then they are not chemical weapons. You cannot get more definitive than the international organization responsible for the definitions and control of chemical weapons.

Given that some may believe napalm is forbidden but most will know that white phosphorus is not (because they use it routinely), what's the best way to answer this question?

And what's the accuracy of a press release that says 80% of our troops oppose the use of napalm and white phosphorus, when you have to add "Definitely false, Mostly False, Partly False and Partly True and Mostly True together to get to 80%? Two can play that game. Using the same false reasoning, I can say, with equal authority, that only 22.6% of the troops oppose the use of napalm and white phosphorus.

Furthermore, the question never asked them if they were opposed to the use — it asked them if their use was "legitimate" (whatever that means!)

The poll is bullshit. The press releases are bullshit. The story is bullshit.
Posted by antimedia on Friday March 3, 2006 at 11:14pm

Bruce Kesler | Mar. 4, 2006 | 12:48 AM