What you may not know about CA-50

The Democrats’ defeat is even more than it appears. If CA-50, my home congressional district, tells us anything about now or November, it’s the premature electionation of the Democrats and allies in the major media. Both on a local and national-issue basis, the Democrats have overstepped on the issues and on their compatibility with the majority of voters.

Right blogs are properly making much of that Francine Busby’s nationalized campaign did not get past the 45% that is the max for a Democrat even in national races in this Republican leaning district. The Right notes that this makes the Busby buzz much ado about nothing. The Left, however, and most Right commentators accept that Brian Bilbray just polled 5% higher in a district that has a 3-2 Republican registration edge. Actually, Busby had the Democrat slate to herself. That’s it -- the max -- for her, even with a favoring wind. Bilbray, however, was contested by a Libertarian, and a conservative for whom Bilbray is too moderate, with a combined 5.2% of the primary vote. These voters are likely to be in Bilbray’s column in November, along with the heavier Republican turnout one would expect in a general election.

Busby’s defeat is despite the major national Party support she received (both Parties tend to take money from California and put little back, as election results here are so reliably one way or the other ordinarily). On the other hand, the national Republicans, for a very rare change, actually sent in large TV electioneering funds. (Hopefully, their scare will energize their attention to local unrest before and after November, rather than take this particular election’s result as excuse to return to the same old Washington ways.)

Busby’s defeat is despite the statewide ballot issues and Governor primary being of more interest to and bringing out Democrat voters.

Busby’s defeat is despite possibly the worst run of negative news both locally (Duke Cunningham’s disgrace) and presented by the MSM nationally against the Republican Party, and the split among Republicans upset about Washington spending and insularity.

I saw Busby yesterday in the parking lot across the street from a client of mine in Cardiff, directing her get-out-the-vote troops like a general, and she is bulldog determined. The conversation among her lieutenants in the parking lot was how she needs to change her appearance, loosen her hair and get out of her multi-colored same-suit JC Penney wardrobe, as she has hidden her far-Left positions. By contrast, I’ve met Bilbray several times. He’s more San Diego. Suits and ties are as rare here as snowsuits. Bilbray is a surfer-dad, casually wise-cracking, who has served in various posts from small-town mayor to former congressman, who beneath the relaxed exterior has a laser-like focus and consistency that is more than a match for Busby’s local school-board experience. Bilbray may be a moderate to extreme-Rightists, but I have found him reliably conservative on issue after issue across the years, and not afraid to buck the Party’s-tide when his principles are so as on immigration. Bilbray is also a reliable friend of the military, and of Israel. His lack of absolutist rigidity on abortion or gun-control is, as most polling of Republicans attests, entirely mainstream conservative.

UPDATE: Apparently Newt Gingrich agrees with me.

I know Brian Bilbray. Brian Bilbray was with me in Washington at the beginning of the 104th Congress and was key to implementing the needed reforms of the Contract with America. Yesterday, Brian Bilbray won with a similar agenda of real change….

The first was a determined effort by Brian Bilbray to talk about controlling spending, changing Washington and controlling the border and illegal immigration. Bilbray did not run to “stay the course” and help Washington; Bilbray ran to change Washington. He ran to return to the spirit of 1994 and the Contract with America….

There are three big lessons to be learned from the dynamics that drove this election.
1. Independence and a willingness to stand up for the folks back home overcame President Bush’s low approval rating. Ultimately, 2006 is not a presidential election and it will not be a referendum on the President if Republicans go home and do their job of representing the values and concerns of the people who elect them.

2. Fighting to control the border and defend the American people on illegal immigration (the House position) really works. Amnesty (the Senate bill) was clearly repudiated by Republican voters.

3. However dissatisfied Republican voters are with Washington, when they realize the Democrat is a Nancy Pelosi-Howard Dean liberal they turn against them. This means that Republican candidates this fall must be prepared to make their liberal Democrat opponents bear the burden of their positions. The Democrats cannot be allowed to hide their ideology. Remember, the Democrat had 44% in the first round and Bilbray had 15%. Busby couldn’t break out beyond her liberal base. She was simply too liberal.

This can be the story again and again this fall. Republicans are not perfect but liberal Democrats are unacceptable as an alternative.