The Eternal Hope

The expectation that the American Jewish voter will suddenly have an epiphany and convert to Republicans is again alive. It might even be called an eternal hope, so strong in the face of the weight of contrary evidence.

I use that term “eternal hope,” since it’s comparable in some respects to the degree of realistic expectation among Jews across centuries that we would return to a state of Israel. Only a relatively small minority really believed that likely. It took the global catastrophe of World War II and the Jewish catastrophe of the Holocaust to bring about the creation of the state of Israel, which was still chancy at the time and its survival has remained so due to big power politics, waffling leaders, Arab attacks, and underlying prejudices.

While none but the most extreme, call them what they are, growing number of nuts on the far Left or their diminishing shell-partners on the extreme Right would hope for the end of Israel, the broader tendency among liberals to equivocate about or oppose American or Israeli armed firmness against terrorists could result in that destruction for Israel. It may take such a level of catastrophe, not expected or desired by any, to significantly shift American Jews from their Democratic Party and liberal inertia.

Yet, with nuclear capacity coming into Iran’s hands, such an outcome could happen. Seeing and turning back the Iranian hand behind Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria is but one necessity to preserving Israel.

The latest stirring of hope that more Jewish Democrats will shift toward the Republicans is spurred by the primary battle by observant Jew, 2000 Democrat vice-presidential candidate, Joe Lieberman. There is a lack of reliable polling in the race. Yet, the level of hysteria, hype and hope it has stirred is remarkable, and like most will likely turn out to quite overdrawn.

An article in the Jewish Forward speculates that the “Liberal Assault on Joe Could Hurt Democrats in Other Senate Races,”

Thousands of hawkish Jewish Democrats who see the Connecticut lawmaker as their standard-bearer will either abandon the party or sit out the November election.
That, say several political observers, could make the difference in some hard-fought Senate races — including contests in Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania — that Democrats must win in order to have any hope of taking back the Senate this year.
"Tons of activist Jewish Dems could be really bitter about it," a Washington strategist with close ties to the Democratic leadership said of the prospect of a Lieberman primary loss to Connecticut cable company executive Ned Lamont. "Observant Jews could stay home. They won't vote in those races."

This leads Ryan Sager at RealClearPolitics.com to observe in “Losing Lieberman: A Jewish Exodus?,” that “Supporters of Israel have no place in a "netroots" Democratic Party.” Indeed, the National Jewish Democratic Council equivocates to say “"NJDC Pac never endorses in primaries,” remaining neutral between Lieberman and his single-issue anti-Iraq challenger Ned Lamont. The reason for such neutralism:

…an internal Democratic poll of Connecticut Jews sees Lamont leading by 50 percent to 41 percent, JTA [Jewish Telegrap Agency newswire] has learned. The sample was small, but the results were a dramatic departure from the 90-plus approval rating Lieberman scored among Jews after Al Gore named him as his running mate in 2000….Lieberman's backers attribute the shift to opposition to the Iraq war. Jewish opposition to the war has always outpaced general opposition.

A poll last December had “70 percent of U.S. Jews disapprove of the Iraq war, with 28 percent backing it.” That percent has not likely dropped, but maybe grown under the constant partisan attacks by Democrats.

“Jewish groups launch ‘full-court press´ to support Israel´s retaliatory strikes,” surveys the strong support from the broad array of leading Jewish organizations. But, even there we see the split personality of the very liberal leaders of about one-third of American Jews, the Reform movement, even though many Reform Jews are conservative or Republican.

The Reform movement, for its part, defended Israel’s right to defend itself, while calling on Israel in a statement “to do everything possible to assure that basic civilian needs, including electricity and water, in Gaza and elsewhere, are met.”
“Jewishly and politically, that’s an important point to note,” Rabbi Eric Yoffie, president of the Union for Reform Judaism, told JTA. “Beyond that we, I assume, pretty much stand with the broader community and we want our people to rally to Israel’s side.”

Many Republican Jews, myself included, expected to see a major swing among Jews toward Bush in 2004, due to Bush being the strongest supporter of Israel in a generation and expecting that -- and Jewish self-interest in defense of Israel from Islamicist hatred as part of success in the War On Terror -- to cause serious rethinking of past allegiance to the Democrats.

We were wrong and disappointed. While observant, Russian immigrant and younger Jews did show a shift toward Bush (47% of those who attend synagogue at least weekly, maybe up to 90% of Russian Americans in a New York City poll before the election, 35% of Jewish men under 30 years of age), the overwhelming number of Jews remained loyal Democrat voters. Analysts working with difficult data vary a bit, but an overall assessment of the data shows 78% of American Jews going for John Kerry, which “number has been remarkably stable over the last three presidential elections.”

22% in 2004 betters 8% for Goldwater in 1964, and is a slight improvement over the 19% voter support Bush received from Jews in 2000 in the wake of resentment at James Baker's expletive regard for the relatively small Jewish vote for Republicans. Two professors at U. of Maryland try to delve into the persistency of Jews affinity to the Democrats:

Why do Jews vote Democratic? Mostly for the same reasons others vote Democratic – they are liberal….Jews may vote for Democrats less frequently from time to time, but they usually give more support to their favored party than non-Jews. Like the cat that always came back, Jews seem to boomerang back to the Democratic Party.

The professors analyze why that is. The liberal agenda and criticisms of Republican policies is predominant among American Jews. The professors stretch the data to incorporate fear of evangelicals, but that’s hardly needed to explain, and is just another trumped Democrat talking point.

In 2004, 62% of Jews who placed Israel as their first or second most important issue tended GOP. However, as the National Jewish Democratic Council’s July 2004 survey showed, Israel was not the overwhelming priority of American Jews, and most dissented from Iraq policy. In a choice of two priorities from a list only 15% prioritized Israel, compared to 42% prioritizing the economy and jobs, 42% the terrorism and national security or 24% the situation in Iraq (with the American Jewish Committee poll at the same time having 66% disapproving of Bush’s handling of Iraq), 24% affordable health care, 19% Social Security and Medicare.

In short, don’t expect either Lieberman or Israel to fall in 2006, or American Jews to anytime soon shift more than a smidgeon toward Republicans. And, better a long term shift than that coming from any catastrophe.