Get Out! Thankless Objectives in Iraq Being Accomplished

As a teenager expressing his or her independence is welcomed, even though often shrouded in surliness, the latest poll of Iraqis’ desires for independence from any external presence in their affairs should be welcomed.

The Washington Post reported on several polls of Iraqis. The headline, “Most Iraqis Favor Immediate U.S. Pullout, Polls Show” and most of the article focus on this part of the polling. Although the poll by World Public Opinion devotes most of its content on other matters, and the WP article spends a few paragraphs on these, Judith Klinghoffer’s blog post focuses on this other side of the poll story, “Poll: Al Qaeda Lost Hearts And Minds In Iraq.”

In short, most Iraqis polled favor a withdrawal of US forces within a year, but most Iraqis also oppose Al Qaeda, support their central government, oppose sectarian militias, have faith in Iraqi security forces, and do not favor dissolution into Shia, Sunni and Kurd states.

One can fault the World Public Opinion poll for its questions or methodology. The choice of questions is fairly leading. For example, only the possibility of a US desire to establish permanent bases is polled, and suspicion of that then posited as reason for opposition to the US presence. The poll does not present other possible reasons for support or opposition to the US presence, like security or reconstruction. Further, there’s no statistical reliability claimed, except that the polling firms tried to be random. Statistical reliability, of course, is probably too much to expect in a war zone or in a country without reliable recent demographic census data. But, to simply accept a poll as valid, on its face, in these circumstances makes as much sense as believing whatever is in a newspaper just because it’s in print.

Nonetheless, the poll results are reasonably reasonable. Most Iraqis want peace and security, and want everyone, whether internal or external forces, to get out of their faces and to feel safe.

Responsible scholars of governing class as absurd that national leadership should just be poll driven. Public opinion is largely driven by events and leadership, as seen in the sharp decline in the poll since last January’s polling of Sunni opposition to the central government. Leaders recognize there’s still much to do, and very likely at least several more years hard effort, to make current progress a reasonable chance of lasting.

Still, the immediate strategic objectives of the US going into Iraq have been accomplished, the elimination of the plans and capabilities to manufacture WMD’s or to interfere in the affairs of neighboring countries, and the elimination of a bloody dictatorship. The larger, and obviously far more difficult objective of developing a more civil society is well launched, as this poll indicates, by the Iraqis’ support of their more democratic central government, lack of support for external or internal troublemakers and murderers, and increasing confidence in the Iraqi security forces.