Models For Cuba

No, we don’t mean this one, Mayra Veronica, although she is one of Cuba’s most enticing products, whose talents are successful in the appreciative red-blooded US of A.

But, before moving on, now that we’ve got your attention, enjoy this “brief” video.

Uh, where was I? Oh, now I remember, although the peaks of the Sierra Maestra are a more enticing subject.

Various commentators are hopeful that, after almost 50-years of Fidel Castro’s communist rule, Cuba may rejoin the ranks of free or freer nations.

Models, meaning analogies, from other countries are trotted forth.

Amity Schlaes turns to East Germany as one, primarily as to the proper US path.

The situation in Cuba resembles that of East Germany. On Oct. 18, 1989, strongman Erich Honecker was forced to resign. Unperturbed, the press focused on his successor, Egon Krenz -- exploring issues such as Krenz's age and what exactly he had done in the Free German Youth movement. Like Raul Castro, Krenz was praised for his pragmatism.

We missed the big story. Krenz was just a figurehead. So was Hans Modrow, who succeeded him. East Germany was already dead. Germans were merely waiting for the right moment to push their way through the border checkpoints. Within less than a month, they had brought down the Berlin Wall.

The first good move by George H.W. Bush -- the 41st U.S. president -- was to allow that change to happen without intervening. In 1989, you didn't see NATO moving to prop up the Warsaw Pact. Bush just waited….

Kohl, with the support of Bush, made a big wager. He would promise each East German that ``none would have it worse than before,'' and many would have it better. East Germans would get one deutsche mark for each of their East German marks, though that was hardly the exchange rate the market would have determined. Enormous subsidies would flow eastward for 10 years as well….

What Schlaes misses is that the US is not about to engage in a massive subsidy of Cuba, as West Germany did of East Germany after reunification.

Further, what Schlaes misses is that Cuba’s economics are not as dire as East Germany’s, at least to its ruling class. As Darren Gersh explained on PBS’ Nightly Business Report:

But some analysts believe there is little reason for Cuba to cut deals with the United States. The CIA estimates, after a long period of stagnation, the Cuban economy is growing again, rising 7 percent last year. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is pumping in oil and billions of dollars to support his leftist ally. And while U.S. companies are not welcome in Havana, Chinese state-owned enterprises are. Robert Muse is an international lawyer specializing in Cuba. He says the Chinese government is cutting deals to secure natural resources from the island.

ROBERT MUSE, INTERNATIONAL LAWYER: They're committed to investing billions of dollars in nickel production in. Cuba -- nickel prices are at an all-time high -- in oil exploration and extraction in Cuba and other primary industries.

GERSH: With other Latin American countries following Havana's lead and nationalizing their economies, Muse says Cuban leaders see no need to meet American demands on human rights and democracy in order to lift the U.S. embargo.

MUSE: Nearly 20 years I've been around the subject, they are less interested than they have ever been. In a way, the Cuban leadership feels vindicated by history.

This is confirmed by one of the US’s leading authorities on trade with Cuba.

John Kavulich, a senior policy adviser to the New York-based U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, does not expect any meaningful change in trade relations, including farm trade.

While there has been considerable interest by U.S. companies and farmers to do more business with the island nation, Kavulich said the U.S. has little influence in Cuba.

"The key to what takes place in Cuba and how Cuba develops in the next 12, 18, 24, 36, 48 months is Venezuela and China. Because they are providing the financial support to Cuba," he said. "And as long as they do, the Cuban government has absolutely no incentive whatsoever to engage with the United States in any meaningful way."

Some Western businesses may see profitable opportunities in Cuba, and point to Vietnam as an example to model. But, what has that wrought: entrenchment of the regime and continued human rights abuses and repression. As Human Rights Watch introduced its review of 2007 in Vietnam:

2007 was characterized by the harshest crackdown on peaceful dissent in 20 years.

The government, emboldened by international recognition after joining the World Trade Organization in late 2006, moved to suppress all challenges to the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) by arresting dozens of democracy and human rights activists, independent trade union leaders, underground publishers, and members of unsanctioned religious groups. This reversed a temporary easing of restrictions in 2006, prior to Vietnam’s hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, when independent activism and opposition political parties had surfaced.

Human Rights Watch, also, said this about 2007 in Cuba:

Cuba remains the one country in Latin America that represses nearly all forms of political dissent. There have been no significant policy changes since Fidel Castro relinquished direct control of the government to his brother Raul Castro in August 2006. The government continues to enforce political conformity using criminal prosecutions, long-term and short-term detentions, mob harassment, police warnings, surveillance, house arrests, travel restrictions, and politically-motivated dismissals from employment. The end result is that Cubans are systematically denied basic rights to free expression, association, assembly, privacy, movement, and due process of law….

In January 2005 the European Union decided to temporarily suspend the diplomatic sanctions that it had adopted in the wake of the Cuban government’s 2003 crackdown against dissidents. In June 2006, and again in June 2007, the EU decided to renew the suspensions, but not lift the sanctions outright. It offered to resume discussions with the Castro government, stipulating that if it were to accept the invitation, the Cuban government must be willing to discuss human rights, political prisoners, and democracy. In response, the Cuban foreign ministry indicated that Cuba would not participate in talks unless the sanctions were fully dropped. Nevertheless, representatives of the EU and Cuba held “informal, exploratory talks” at the United Nations in September 2007 and agreed to meet again in early 2008.

The EU’s blandishments have been futile, and the US should expect the same from Cuba’s prospective new rulers succeeding Fidel.

Fausta follows events in Cuba closely, and sees little reason to get euphoric as long as there is such continuity of oppression.

Unless there is a remarkable upheaval from within Cuba, we advise the more advantageous consideration of other models from Cuba, as we started this post with.