Austin Bay:History Can Be Made In A Week By The Weak

History can be made in a week by the weak. That’s my summation of two complementary contributions from military analyst Austin Bay.

Defeatists in Congress and the media point at the Iraqi government’s offensive against Sadr’s militias as evidence that the U.S. should withdraw from Iraq’s violence, unending and unendable in their view.

However, as Austin Bay demonstrates, the offensive displayed the increasing strength of Iraq’s government, Sadr’s actual weakness, and the progress of the gradual whittling strategy against Iraq’s enemies.

A week’s “instant analysis” in the media, acting to strengthen Congressional Democrats’ push for withdrawal, can be the weak undermining the history being made in gradually building a more stable Iraq.

Next week, General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker will present their sober appraisals to Congress of the security progress thus far, that last year the Democrats said wasn’t possible, and the opening that has made for beginning political progress, which the Democrats currently ignore. The Democrats’ bet is on stirring dissent in order to take power in Washington next November, the fate of Iraq and the Middle East – and U.S. and Western security – irrelevant to this power lust.

Bay discusses the past and present in his latest column, and addresses the future consequences of defeatism in a new video.

Austin Bay’s latest Creators Syndicate column, “Whittling Away At Sadr,” is up at RealClearPolitics. Bay writes:

After his outlaw militiamen raised white flags and skedaddled from their latest round of combat with the Iraqi Army, radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr declared victory.

He always does. He understands media bravado. He wagers that survival bandaged by bombast and swathed in sensational headlines is a short-term triumph. Survive long enough, and Sadr bets he will prevail.

That’s, also, the instant repetition in the major media. But, the MSM misses the deeper meaning of what’s happening in Iraq.

The Iraqi government's strategy has been to bring former insurgents into the political process. Since interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi articulated that goal in mid-2004, the central government's complex array of enemies has sought to thwart that program.

Saddam's old cohorts managed to convince themselves that if they spread enough money around, killed enough people and hammered the U.S. electorate with bloody headlines the United States would leave and the Iraqi government would eventually collapse -- and they would return to power. Saddam's capture, trial and execution has all but snuffed out the old-line Baathists. Recall Maliki stoutly defended his decision to carry out the court's sentence of capital punishment. He bet with Saddam dead the tyrant's cult of personality would wither. It has.

Al-Qaida pursued the same strategy of blood for headlines. Al-Qaida in Iraq tried to ignite a sectarian war -- its now-dead emir, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, made that goal explicit in February 2004. Al-Qaida massacred en masse, to the point that U.S. Sen. Harry Reid (D for Defeatist) declared the war in Iraq lost. Then, the Sunni tribes in Anbar turned on al-Qaida. Sunni political integration is by no means complete, but al-Qaida has failed.

Now the Shia-led Iraqi government focuses on its chief Shia nemesis. How the Iraqi government handles Sadr matters. In August 2004, Sadr's thugs grabbed the Grand Mosque in Najaf. Sadr was counting on Americans to bomb the mosque. The United States opted to follow the political lead of Shia Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Sistani's aides told coalition officers: "Let us deal with Sadr. We know how to handle him and will do so. However, the coalition must not make him a martyr."

The Iraqi way often appears to be indecisive, until you learn to look at its counter-insurgency methods in the frame of achieving political success, instead of the frame of American presidential elections.

In southern Iraq and east Baghdad, Sadr once again lost street face. Despite the predictable media umbrage, this translates into political deterioration.

Think of the Iraqi anti-Sadr method as a form of suffocation, a political war waged with the blessing of Ayatollah Sistani that requires daily economic and political action, persistent police efforts and occasional military thrusts.

Austin Bay looks forward, in this video described below, to what would happen if the defeatist instant analysis in the media is followed, in “Seven Scenarios For Rapid Military Withdrawal from Iraq.” (click on GuestLogIn; if you are using AOL’s browser, switch to your Internet Explorer browser and cut-paste in http://austinbay.thearenausa.com/insight/ ; For complete access to upcoming updates and content take a minute and click the register here link. It’s quick, painless and the information is kept completely internal and never shared with outside sources. )

Bay’s students tell him that he presents complex information tightly, with leads to more, in a clear and friendly manner. This video amply demonstrates Bay’s didactic abilities.

It is the beta for a new venture, ArenaUSA, that its founder David Robison explains below. Just one look at the site, and Austin Bay's video, and you’ll eagerly await its formal launch. Meanwhile, you may want to send the link to Austin Bay’s video to others you know who engage in the public debate, and to news reporters who need clarity as to what the debate is really about.

A study conducted in the UK last year demonstrated that there was more information, about more subjects in one issue of “The Sun” than the average Englishman of 1700 had access to in his lifetime.

This complete reversal has created an interesting dilemma, a paradox if you will: Media Paradox.

Information is more available today, from more sources than ever before, yet we are less informed. Not only is there more information available, but the critical information has become increasingly complex and the method it is presented makes it understandable why more people can tell you the name of the host of American Idol than can identify the US Secretary of State.

This is proof positive that quantity does not equate to quality.

With the steady rise in use of the internet by individuals looking to find out greater detail on pivotal issues and events of the day, a solution is needed to address the supply and demand problem.

The ArenaUSA is poised to bridge the gap between old and new media by
incorporating emerging technology and expectations in news and media.

We will combine convergence media (audio, video, and the written word), the interactive excitement of social networks such as MySpace and Facebook, and facilitate mature discussion and reflection in one unique, dynamic forum.

Consumers, no longer satisfied or loyal to one newspaper, magazine or network anchor have moved online. Mainstream media has been slow to understand this shift, despite the drastic decline in viewers, listeners and readers. The numbers online, however, are impossible to ignore.

The Internet provided an “abundance” of information. The Arena provides organization and context to the content, combining the ability to compare and contrast opposing perspectives, act, respond and even validate the sources and become interactive in the news process itself.

The Arena knows trust and integrity matter. People choose their news sources based on where they believe they can receive the best and most trustworthy information.

The Arena will be the destination you think of first when you are looking for answers and information on the pivotal issues and events around the world.